If there’s ever been a fantasy position where nobody knows anything, it’s the starting pitchers. But you need a list and we need a plan, so here we go.
What follows are my suggested salaries if you play in a Fantasy Salary Cap Draft format. We’ve already done Shuffles for all the offensive positions: catchers, corner infielders, middle infielders and outfielders. We’ll complete the series with relief pitchers later in the week.
Have disagreements? Good, that’s why we have a game. I welcome your reasonable and respectable feedback at @scott_pianowski.
And away we go.
The Big Tickets
$37 Corbin Burnes
$36 Gerrit Cole
$33 Sandy Alcantara
$32 Brandon Woodruff
$31 Max Scherzer
$31 Aaron Nola
$30 Justin Verlander
$29 Spencer Strider
$28 Shane McClanahan
Adam Wainwright has the most all-time Cy Young voting shares without winning the award; Cole is right behind him. The most important part of starting pitcher value is availability, and Cole hasn’t had a major injury since 2016. It’s foolish to imply any pitcher is truly safe, but some have to be more safe than others. Put Cola in that safe bucket. . . Burnes didn’t repeat his Cy Young season, but he led the NL in strikeouts and his WHIP was once again under one. He’s one of the few pitchers with a legitimate chance at 200 innings. . . Alcantara’s pitch-to-contact style is a double-edged sword; it keeps him in games longer (and he’ll get strikeouts through volume anyway), but it also brings a dicey Miami defense into play. But Alcantara hardly walks anyone and he keeps the ball in the park, so I suspect he’s too big to fail. Even if he regressed back to 2021 ratios, we’re still talking about a star. . . Generally we get nervous about starting pitchers with just two offerings, but Strider was so dominant with his fastball and slider, it didn’t matter last year. And although lefties had a slightly better chance against him, they didn’t do a lot against Strider during his breakout year: .202/.264/.277, just three homers. . . Nola’s expected ERAs are often better than his real-life ones, which is a comment on the Philadelphia defense. But his stellar control will keep the WHIP in a good area, and he’s had over 200 strikeouts in four different years. He’s also very easy to watch, given that his command is consistently excellent.
Legitimate building blocks
$27 Jacob deGrom
$27 Shohei Ohtani
$26 Carlos Rodon
$26 Shane Bieber
$26 Zack Wheeler
$25 Dylan Cease
$24 Julio Urias
$23 Luis Castillo
$22 Zac Gallen
$21 Kevin Gausman
$21 Alec Manoah
$21 Yu Darvish
$21 Framber Valdez
$20 Cristian Javier
$20 Max Fried
$20 Robbie Ray
$19 Triston McKenzie
A healthy deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball, but after two breakdown seasons and now entering his age-35 campaign, I can’t write an expectant check. . . Bieber has an ordinary fastball and his strikeout rate has dropped two years in a row, but if you believe in his off-speed pitches and the Guardians defense, you’ll consider him a quasi-ace, as I do. . . Even if we concede Urias ran favorably on batted balls last year, what’s wrong with a 2.81 expected ERA? Unfortunately, Dodgers Stadium isn’t the pitcher it used to be, but entering an age-26 season, he’s still a proactive pick. . . Anyone on the Astros rotation looks interesting to me, with Valdez getting the first look because of his ground-ball tilt. Maybe the shift restrictions will push the BABIP up, but he misses enough bats and should be supported by the things we care about, defense, a good offense and a reliable bullpen. . . If Cease gets control of his walking issues, he’s a Cy Young contender. But I’m not going to proactively push that into his ranking. Let the room come to you.
Talk them up, talk them down
$17 Logan Webb
$16 Luis Severino
$16 Nestor Cortes Jr.
$15 Logan Gilbert
$15 Clayton Kershaw
$15 George Kirby
$15 *Joe Musgrove
$14 Kyle Wright
$13 Blake Snell
$12 Lance Lynn
$12 Charlie Morton
$12 Lucas Giolito
$11 Tyler Glasnow
$11 Hunter Greene
$11 Freddy Peralta
$11 Brady Singer
$10 Nick Lodolo
$10 Joe Ryan
$10 Pablo Lopez
$10 Chris Bassitt
$10 Jordan Montgomery
$10 Jeffrey Springs
$10 Tony Gonsolin
$10 Luis Garcia
$9 Chris Sale
$9 Jesus Luzardo
$9 Dustin May
$9 Drew Rasmussen
Giolito and Lynn are interesting targets for a White Sox team that had everything go wrong last year (Giolito also had a run with COVID). This still profiles as a playoff contender on paper, and could easily win the AL Central with a reasonable runout. . . I understand it’s hard to let go of Glasnow’s upside, but he’s been past 90 innings just once in his career. His ADP shouldn’t be in the Top 100. . . Scheduled maintenance and load management are part of Kershaw’s salary into the final few years, but he still projects for a low-3s ERA and a plus WHIP, along with better than strikeouts per inning. He’s a reasonable SP3 and a steal if you land him for a lower slot. . . Sale hasn’t pitched a full season since 2017 and he’s always had a violent delivery and unorthodox set of mechanics. No one ever questions his guts or his desire, but at age-34 I’ll question his current ADP (160s for Yahoo, similar in NFBC).
Plausible upside
$8 Hunter Brown
$8 Kodai Seng
$7 Jon Gray
$7 Grayson Rodriguez
$7 Miles Mikolas
$7 Cal Quantrill
$6 Andrew Heaney
$6 Sonny Gray
$6 Tyler Mahle
$5 Patrick Sandoval
$5 Reid Detmers
$5 Tyler Anderson
$5 Jameson Taillon
$5 Marcus Stroman
$5 Carlos Carrasco
$5 Eric Lauer
$5 Jose Quintana
$4 Alex Cobb
$4 Jose Berrios
$4 Merrill Kelly
$4 Edward Cabrera
$4 Trevor Rogers
$4 Jose Urquidy
$4 by Sean Manaea
$4 Justin Steele
$4 Martin Perez
$4 Michael Kopech
$4 Ross Stripling
$4 Adam Wainwright
$4 by Kent Maeda
$4 Alex Wood
Brown is too good not to crash Houston’s rotation at some point, and perhaps there’s a tailwind with Lance McCullers already dinged up. . . Quintana revitalized his career last season and was a nifty back-of-rotation addition for the Mets. . . Lauer has out-pitched his metrics the last two years, but over 49 starts we’re looking at a 3.47 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and around a strikeout per inning. His current tag (Yahoo ADP: 258) is a giveaway. . . If Mahle can stay healthy, he easily crushes his ADP, no longer tied to Cincinnati’s messy defense and score-friendly park.
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Bargain bin
$3 to Nathan Eovaldi
$3 Jack Flaherty
$3 Ranger Suarez
$3 Taijuan Walker
$3 Bailey Ober
$3 Noah Syndergaard
$3 Aaron Civale
$3 Mike Clevinger
$2 *Lance McCullers Jr.
$2 Roansy Contreras
$2 Garrett Whitlock
$2 Eduardo Rodriguez
$2 Aaron Ashby
$2 Zach Eflin
$2 Hayden Wesneski
$2 Corey Kluber
$2 Cole Irwin
$1 Steven Matz
$1 MacKenzie Gore
$1 Kyle Bradish
$1 Taylor Megill
$1 David Peterson